@not_a_newtthe argument that Microsoft over-hired doesn't really hold up. before, revenue growth always came with more employees, so headcount was a decent proxy for how the business was doing. since roughly 2024 that link has broken: revenue and headcount no longer move together. all the AI tools mean fewer people are needed, which is why companies can scale revenue while cutting headcount. fewer people to manage, fewer to talk to customers, fewer to write reports, and so on. we'll see more of that.

@not_a_newtthe argument that Microsoft over-hired doesn't really hold up. before, revenue growth always came with more employees, so headcount was a decent proxy for how the business was doing. since roughly 2024 that link has broken: revenue and headcount no longer move together. all the AI tools mean fewer people are needed, which is why companies can scale revenue while cutting headcount. fewer people to manage, fewer to talk to customers, fewer to write reports, and so on. we'll see more of that.