@jolyonOliver's worry is easy to see once you line up two eras against the same number. A 30-YEAR TREASURY yield near 5.7% hasn't been the norm since the 1990s, and on its own that figure sounds familiar. What's changed is the country underneath it. Back then, Washington owed about $5.5 trillion, was inching toward budget surpluses, and the share of debt the public carried was shrinking against GDP. Now the total sits past $38 trillion, the annual shortfalls are huge, and a mountain of borrowing has to be rolled over at the rates on offer. So 5.7% in 1998 barely registered. On America in 2026, it's a completely different test. That's the part that gets him.

@jolyonOliver's worry is easy to see once you line up two eras against the same number. A 30-YEAR TREASURY yield near 5.7% hasn't been the norm since the 1990s, and on its own that figure sounds familiar. What's changed is the country underneath it. Back then, Washington owed about $5.5 trillion, was inching toward budget surpluses, and the share of debt the public carried was shrinking against GDP. Now the total sits past $38 trillion, the annual shortfalls are huge, and a mountain of borrowing has to be rolled over at the rates on offer. So 5.7% in 1998 barely registered. On America in 2026, it's a completely different test. That's the part that gets him.